State of Replay: After Action Assessment
In the election's aftermath, many fascinating and detailed analysis are emerging. With the adrenal rush of the election fading, I want to pen down some thoughts. First, BBM’s plurality signals the beginning of two decades of deadzone for the Philippine’s politics. The plurality, for the first time after EDSA, shows the impetus of empire-building among the various political clans dwindling to regional ambition, and the presidential slot will be negotiated, more like how a prim
Putin’s Offramp
2022/05/24 With the military operation floundering, international diplomatic and economic backlash, and Sweden and Finland decided to join NATO, Putin should be ready to search for the elusive off-ramp. With the recent change in the car radio of his disinformation network, I think the following is a likely scenario. Unlike democracies, autocratic governments survive not by building consensus and negotiating accommodations between and among the various interest groups, but do
Enough Data, Not Enough Model
I predicted a VP Leni victory because I followed the data. While we had plenty of social media data, we also knew of many off-model factors we did not and could not capture. The unanswerable question is if the current model is adequate to predict the electoral outcome. The answer was obvious after the election but not before, but I took the chance to publish my prediction anyway. Hindsight is 20/20. In the cold introspection of the monumentally wrong prognosticator, I alone a
And the winner is...
May 9, 2022, 8:04 AM. (Date updated from March because of typo) For the Philippines national election, AutoPolitic predicts, based on our five month tracking of the campaigns on social media, VP Leni to win by at least 5% of the votes and Senator Kiko to win by at least 9% of the votes.
State of Play: A Pompous Ass Calls the Election
“Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan.” -John F. Kennedy Let me save you time. I, on behalf of AutoPolitic, am projecting the winner in the 2022 Philippines presidential election to be Leni Robredo by at least 4% of the total votes. My prediction is based on the social intelligence tracking work I have done with my friends at the ADDS group for the last 5 months. We have also used other social media platforms and google to confirm the direction of the campa
