State of Play: Merger and Acquisition
The recent Pink Surge is peaking and the timing is very propitious. With Ferdinand Marcos Jr (BBM) absent from the debates, and using the social data, AutoPolitic is updating its state of play prognostications. BBM’s debate absence, and its attendant social media data, show that BBM’s strategy of insular communication to his followers is an effective strategy given the candidate’s inherited baggage and personal communication style. The very low negativity heaped on Leni durin
Premortem on Ambitions
While I consider it a hubris by the survey firms to declare winners before votes are cast, I want to pronounce three campaign dead, in an act of unbelievable reverse hubris. There will be many postmortem after the election, I thought I would lead the parade. Of all the candidates, I thought Senator Lacson and Senator Sotto were the most qualified. Their campaign’s dismal performance is tragically foreseeable. Even before the presidential campaign, the two senators have consis
The Ghost at the Debate (The 12 hour aftermath)
CAVEAT: This analysis is generated immediately after the debate using real-time data, and we will followup with longitudinal graphic and analysis to see if, as more people see the debate, the wider public response is the same as the initial one) The CNN Pilipinas debate has been over for less than 12 hours. Did BBM’s absence benefit him or his opponents? With Social Intelligence, we are able to make some definitive analysis based on reaction data and general trends. First, ev
Storm on the Horizon or a Pink Mirage
Publicus Asia’s latest poll suggests BBM Is still ahead by 34 percentage points over VP Leni. Their survey covered 1,500 respondents in March 9-14 period. Meanwhile, our Social Intelligence suggests otherwise. Based on our analysis of Facebook data, VP Leni has taken the lead in Net Positive sentiments, and the difference is in fact widening over BBM. My heretical post starts by first noting that Social Intelligence and the surveys do have some common grounds. Both methods ag
Pink Storm Rising
Analysis of Facebook data show that both Leni and Kiko are surging ahead in the presidential and vice presidential race respectively. What was once a catchup race with BBM and Sara has now flipped in the other direction. Using Net sentiment scores from January 1 to March 6, 2022, seven different surveys during the same period served to confirm our model. Namely that both BBM and Sara were ahead in the rankings during the early part of the year. And that the gap was quickly cl
