And the Winners Are…

We analyzed the KBP sponsored presidential interview. Each camp claimed they won the debate with passion but without actual evidence. Instead of data, each camp presented elaborate rhetoric and cute soundbites. But with the power of Social Intelligence, we can be precise. Here are the winners and the losers by the numbers.

Senator Lacson is the obvious winner. His exposure and engagement have increased and was sustained after the interview. And his campaign is now moving in the right direction and amplitude. But this is not enough. His vote generation potential was the lowest among the top five candidates. He needs to do more to bridge the gap.

Coming in second is Isko Moreno. The popular mayor did not move up in engagement. His campaign’s pace helped him to stay where he is and did not push him further ahead. This despite having enhanced social media and media coverage. This shows the Mayor’s message lacks the substance of Senator Lacson. It failed to resonate with the voters.

Manny and Leni are the two losers, both failed to improve their exposure and engagement. Manny’s lack of progress is expected, since his campaign has been unable to convert his popular status into a leadership brand, and his failure was obvious from a year ago. The post-interview numbers suggest his campaign is effectively over. Leni’s lack of progress from the interview is surprising. The LP’s strategy has always been grassroots pop-up starting in March and accelerating through May for a victory. But the post-interview did not see much improvement in the level of exposure or engagement. The exposure plateau is not a worry for Leni since both Leni and BBM have maximum exposure for the last three months, but the lack of significant engagement suggests she might be in the same place as BBM, unable to find any more new voters.

The conscious absence of Bongbong Marcos from media scrutiny shows his understanding that his campaign sees no benefit from uncontrollable media exposure. His campaign has peaked and from now until May, can only lose voters. BBM is not in campaigning mode, he’s minimizing damage exposure from the media. His following is also large enough that he can go media-lite and advertising heavy to keep his supporter fired up. It’s his election to lose, and the campaign is limiting all opportunities that might shatter the BBM brand by avoiding the Sarah Palin interview disaster.

The race for the highest office now has two battles; the battle for a few inconsequential swing voters, the shadow negotiation among the four candidates who all feel they have a destiny. Leni and Isko need to up their game strategies. While Senator Lacson has a clear first lead off the running block, Bongbong is cruising towards the palace in his traffic-blocking motorcade.

Unsurprising, all the candidates participated in the interview gained greater exposures, with Leni, Isko and Ping gaining more exposure than Pacman.

While Leni has some impressive up-surges, she has achieved that before. PIng's rise was unseen and signal his message's potency or the public's receptivity.

BBM's exposre has not changed even during the interview period or after, sustaining the interpretation that his own media exposure is not tied to the networks.