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Pink Storm Rising

Analysis of Facebook data show that both Leni and Kiko are surging ahead in the presidential and vice presidential race respectively. What was once a catchup race with BBM and Sara has now flipped in the other direction.

Using Net sentiment scores from January 1 to March 6, 2022, seven different surveys during the same period served to confirm our model. Namely that both BBM and Sara were ahead in the rankings during the early part of the year. And that the gap was quickly closing.

Our models differed in terms of the magnitude of the leads. Our models show the contest is closer than what the surveys predicted. (See chart below). And in fact, by early March, Engagement scores show Leni and Kiko forging ahead of BBM and Sara Duterte. Note: the use of sentiments has been shown to be better at predicting poll wins.

To explain the difference, we look at two other charts; cumulative positive sentiment and cumulate negative sentiment. Leni has a higher positive, and BBM has a higher negative.

The simple explanation is just people who are exposed to Leni or Leni's propaganda, LIKE her more than BBM. A sector of the public doesn't like BBM, despite his saturated online presence and higher virality. This new situation may see the BBM Sara camp join the debates. They have nothing more to lose.

An interesting observation is, as BBM's positive image drops, we see Isko picking up the followers, rather than Leni. This is not surprising since most pundits assumed more candidates are bad for Leni as the other candidates would cannibalize her voter base. Instead, we're seeing her grow her base even more. Check out the “Contrast Effect” when comparison ENHANCES difference.

If Pacman or Senator Lacson increase their voter base, will the voters come from Leni or BBM? Are they attracting newer voters? Or is it a boy vs girl thing? Surveys could offer insight if they started using Rank Order scaling of voter preferences.

With two months to go, Leni's campaign is hitting its stride, while BBM's superlative out of gate performance served the strategic purpose of convincing COMELEC not to disqualify him but he is now struggling to retake the lead.

BBM's camp will either keep doing what has worked at the beginning and securely projecting from the existing surveys, or they can change tactics. It is very difficult for a campaign to change tactics when it has worked so early on. Sometimes elections tell us which candidate has the better campaign manager rather than the candidate.

Leni's campaign of wide networking is now tightening up and generating the effect it was intended to have. BBM's grand opening is now in desperately in search of a second act. When a storm approaches out of the blue, it's usually safe to assume a kraken has been released. Now will this storm be a category 3 or 5?

Conflict of Interest Statement:

The author/s certify that they have NO affiliations with or involvement in any organization or entity with any financial interest (such as honoraria; educational grants; participation in speakers’ bureaus; membership, employment, consultancies, stock ownership, or other equity interest; and expert testimony or patent-licensing arrangements), or nonfinancial interest (such as personal or professional relationships, affiliations, knowledge or beliefs) in the subject matter or materials discussed in this story.

QSearch provided the Facebook data from September 1, 2021 to March 6, 2022. Total of 755m Facebook data points.

Photo: "The snow and the red storm - #DH224 Post-traitement | Post-processing" by Didier Hannot Photography is marked with CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.


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